Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
UBS stepping in to save Credit Suisse with a $3.2-billion acquisition has provided the beleaguered Swiss bank's India employees a glimmer of hope. The surprise deal - engineered by the Swiss government - has triggered optimism of fewer job losses at Credit Suisse's India unit and better synergies at key verticals, such as wealth management and investment banking. "UBS is a much stronger hand. Coming within its fold will give Credit Suisse's wealth management and investment banking divisions a good home.
Citing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic over the economy and consumer sentiment, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse has lowered its nominal GDP growth forecast by 150-300 bps to 13-14 per cent, but expects a stronger recovery in the second half as it sees the lockdowns having limited impact on tax collections. Last month, Neelkanth Mishra, the co-head of equity strategy for Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, and India equity strategist, had told PTI that he expected the real GDP to fall to 8.5-9 per cent in FY22 due to the more severe pandemic attack. The virus case load has crossed the 25-million mark, death toll from the same is nearing 2.9 lakh mark, which is one of the highest in the world as the test positivity rate has been around 15 per cent for long.
Standard Chartered's India strategy will focus on wealth management while credit card will remain core to its business though will avoid competition with the country's private banks, said a senior executive of the British lender. "Our focus on wealth management and affluent clients are central to our existence. "We are strong in these areas and we want to grow in these areas.
Experts say a lot of new wealth is being generated by promoters selling their stake.
The total household wealth in India during this period rose 1.7 per cent to $246 billion.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
FIIs hold as much as 27 per cent in the over $1.6 trillion Sensex market capitalisation as of the September quarter, which is at a historic high.
A lot of mid and small-caps are in the bubble zone and command high valuation and have corrected sharply.
Despite the large economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the markets have recovered sharply even though the performance among individual stocks has been quite polarised.
So which sectors are likely to do well in 2022? Should you focus on domestic economy-related sectors or export-oriented ones?
The Nifty Bank index has come off 15 per cent from its peak in February, underperforming the benchmark Nifty which is down 6%.
If India has more billionaires than before, it is because the Indian economy began to look more attractive to FIIs, notes T N Ninan.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
While three of the top five FPIs - Capital, Government of Singapore, and Vanguard - have seen their investment value more than triple, India's benchmark indices have risen just 70%.
Lump sum investments in equity and hybrid schemes of mutual funds (MFs) declined to Rs 17,900 crore in October - the lowest since January 2021. The fall in lump sum investments comes even as flows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) rose to a new all-time high of Rs 13,000 crore in October. The latest lump sum tally is just a third of the peak inflow of Rs 49,700 crore in July 2021.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
The deluge of offerings in the primary market, a muted results season and increasing talks of a Fed taper may quicken the pace of overseas investors selling Indian equities in the near term. The next few weeks may see a dozen companies tap the market for initial public offerings and raise about Rs 30,000 crore. These include the likes of Zomato, Glenmark Life Sciences, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank and Seven Islands Shipping.
Among the lot, Rallis India, Escorts, Jubilant Life Sciences, and Crisil added half of the total gains made in the ace stock-picker's portfolio.
According to experts, work from home, volatility in stock markets worldwide, and redemption pressures compelled investors to defer new investment plans.
Around 75 per cent, or 372 stocks, that are part of the BSE500 are trading at least 10 per cent below their all-time high levels, despite the index hitting a record high 20,515 points on the BSE in intra-day trade on Wednesday, surpassing its previous high of 20,390 touched in March 12. The index, which accounts for 93 per cent of BSE listed companies' market capitalisation, has gained 8 per cent from its recent low of 18,983, touched on April 19. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex gained 6 per cent over the same period, but is still nearly 4.5 per cent away from its all-time high of 52,517 that it hit on February 16.
What matters is the culture and the atmosphere of the workplace, and whether employees get treated fairly. 'It is also important for the employee to feel s/he is part of a winning team,' Credit Suisse's Mickey Doshi tells Niraj Bhatt.
Though most analysts expect the global central banks to keep the liquidity tap open, valuations of Indian markets, they say, are beginning to look stretched. Against this backdrop, they remain cautious, with some even expecting a minor correction from here on.
Despite the 3 per cent gain in September 2019, the FPI sell-off during the quarter has seen the benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 register negative returns in Q3CY19.
Even though stocks may remain volatile in the run-up to the polls, as political parties stitch up alliances, the long-term trajectory for the markets remains bullish.
'People always short-change the resilience of the economy.'
Of these 26, Bajaj Finance, Associated Alcohols and Breweries, Garware Technologies, Filatex India, Tasty Bite Eatables, Aarti Industries and GMM Pfaudler saw an over 10-fold surge in price since 2014.
Overseas funds have been spooked by several policy measures taken by the government in the past few years
'The market won't wait for earnings to recover.'
There is polarisation among sectors with IT and healthcare receiving the lion's share of FPI money in the past two quarters.
'There is a weak link between the economy and the stock market.'
Gold has held up better than many expected.
Swiss banks seek fresh undertakings from Indians.
Embattled billionaire Gautam Adani on Thursday spoke publicly for the first time since his ports-to-energy conglomerate publicly battled a short seller's accusation of stock manipulation and accounting fraud, saying the abrupt move to withdraw a fully-subscribed share sale at his flagship firm was due to market volatility. His group continued to lose on the stock market, with the cumulative rout now nearing $108 billion in a week -- one of the biggest wipeouts in India's history. "After a fully subscribed follow-on public offering (of Adani Enterprises Ltd), yesterday's decision of its withdrawal would have surprised many.
AirAsia founder Tony Fernandes began talks with bankers to take Asia's number one budget airline private after a plunge in its stock price put $200 million worth of loans borrowed against AirAsia's shares at risk.
Market participants are hoping for a few tweaks on the taxation front which will encourage consumers and businesses to spend.
Gaurav Deepak has raised funds for about 100 new-age entrepreneurs.
The B-school also witnessed new roles in the domain.
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